A new study from the Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA) indicates that Canada and the US can accommodate upwards of 35% wind energy penetration while causing little headaches to the electricity grid.

“The Canadian power system, with adequate transmission reinforcements and additional regulating reserves, will not have any significant operational issues operating with 20% or 35% of its energy provided by wind generation,” says the Pan-Canadian Wind Integration Study (PCWIS).

Done by GE Energy Consulting Group for CanWEA, the study indicates that avoided cost from wind energy has a value of $43.40/MWh in a 20% penetration scenario and approximately $40.50/MWh with 35% wind penetration.

Recent projects in North America have been developed with levelized cost of energy (LCOE) in that same range, notes the PCWIS, adding that “this indicates that the wind energy postulated in the study scenarios is very likely to be economically feasible.”

Canadian Green Tech first reported on the PCWIS study in April at CanWEA’s Spring Forum. For more, refer to the following article: Little impact expected from large scale wind energy on North American grid.

But as indicated in the study, additional transmission infrastructure and regulating reserves are needed. To limit the amount of wind energy curtailment, 4.6 GW to 4.8 GW of inter-area transfer capacity will be required under the 20% scenarios. This will carry a cost of about $2.7 billion. For a 35% scenario, transmission infrastructure will cost approximately $3.7 billion for an additional 10 GW of capacity.

Even with this added cost, the CanWEA paper says these investments would have a good return on investment.

“Production simulation results show that operating cost savings in all of North America (USA and Canada) from these transmission reinforcements would pay for the capital investments in approximately 4 years in the 5% BAU scenario and 3 years in the 35% TRGT scenario,” states the PCWIS.

The CanWEA paper acknowledged that even with added transmission capacity and regulating reserves, there will still be wind curtailment. About 4% of energy or 5 TWh in a 20% DISP scenario, 7 TWh or 6% in the 20% CONC model and 9% of 18 TWh in the 35% scenario.

The study also finds that there is no need to attempt to capitalize on higher wind regions in different regions. “Instead, it is more beneficial to add the wind generation in regions where the energy can be partially used within the province and partially shared with neighbouring USA states,” says PCWIS.

“In other words, there is no significant incentive to transport wind energy from slightly better wind locations over long distances (likely requiring new transmission facilities) when wind resources of almost equal quality are located closer to the provincial load centers where the energy would be used,” adds the study.

One of the more important findings from the PCWIS is that Canadian project owners will benefit from increased exports to the US as a result of higher wind energy penetration. Under a 20% scenario, 54% of incremental wind generation will be exported and 46% in a 35% scenario compared to the 5% business as usual benchmark.

There are caveats to this though as hydro rich provinces see exports jump almost in lock step with wind energy capacity increases. Fossil fuel heavy provinces will see wind largely used to replace conventional generation.

It goes without saying that increasing wind energy generation will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The study indicates both Canada and the US benefit from higher wind penetration. (MMt stands for millions of metric tonnes)

20% DISP
Canada: 12.3 MMt
US: 25.6 MMt
Total: 37.9 MMt

20% CONC
Canada: 17 MMt
US: 22.7 MMt
Total: 39.7 MMt

35% TRGT
Canada: 32.3 MMt
US: 46.5 MMt
Total: 78.8 MMt